Program “Accurate Counting. How profitable are bets on the correct score in football? Accurate score in football

Bets on the exact score of a football match are not very popular among forecasters. High odds, of course, attract attention, but it seems that it is sometimes simply unrealistic to predict how this or that match will end. However, there are still betting masters on the exact score. So how do you make money predicting the score of a football match?

What is the most popular score in football?

Many people think that the most common result in football is 0-0. In fact, one can only partially agree with this statement, since a goalless draw is just one of the most popular options for ending football matches. Statistics indicate that the most common results are 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 (in favor of either team) and 2-0 (in favor of either team). Bookmakers offer the lowest odds for these results.

How not to make a mistake in a bet on the exact score of a football match?

It is very important for a successful bet to pay due attention to the processing of statistics. Careful analysis of statistical data will achieve desired result. It is necessary to take into account both the performance of the opponents and the performance of the entire championship. With an average of 1.8 goals scored per game in a tournament, there is little hope that teams will play 4-1 or 3-3. Much easier with less scoring matches. Please note that some teams score particularly little, for example in away matches. Or, on the contrary, the favorites of the season “break away” on outsiders in matches at home.

How to bet on the correct score in order to make money on betting?

If you are confident in the victory of one of the opponents, then you can bet on the 3-4 most likely outcomes. It can be, for example, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1. If the match ends with one of these results, then even one bet will fully cover the other three. It is especially worth paying attention to such an offer of bookmakers as a bet “to another account”. Some bookies do not offer bets on unlikely outcomes such as 7-2 or 10-3. Instead, there is an “any other” bet in the line, which means any scoring option other than those indicated in the line.

H2(+9.5)

How to understand handicap H2(+9.5)? When does the bookmaker offer bets on H2(+9.5) handicap? Why bet on handicap Away (+9.5)? Is it beneficial...

Indeed, bookmakers offer odds of at least 10 for 2:0 or 2:1 scores that are quite popular in football in most matches. It would seem that this is a great opportunity to bet a round sum and quickly increase it tenfold! However, in reality, betting in this very specific market will lead to defeat in most cases if you are amateurish about it.

Correct Score Market

Unlike the most common types of betting on football, which include betting on a win, draw or defeat of one of the teams, the correct score market offers many options. Some bookmakers offer crazy odds on accounts like 10:9 (imagine if a football match ended with such a result, not even hockey, but rather handball), others limit themselves to more real outcomes (most often up to 3:3), offering on all the rest, place a bet “another account”.

If we designate the maximum number of goals of one of the teams in the match as N, then the maximum number of all theoretically possible scores can be calculated using the formula (N + 1)². Thus, games ending with a final score ranging from 0 to 6 goals for each of the opponents can have 49 possible outcomes.

That is why bookmakers offer such high odds in this market, because any of the possible outcomes can happen with much less probability than a simple draw or a victory of one of the teams. In support of this, one can cite the fact that in the entire history of the English Premier League, the most seemingly popular scores of 1:0, 1:1 and 2:1 met in less than 12% of cases (of course, if we talk about each of them separately).

Bookmakers are very fond of such teams, which are considered to be outsiders. After all, the possible number of “reliable” score options for amateur players in matches with their participation is, by definition, greater than in ordinary matches (you are unlikely to risk betting, say, Barcelona and Real Madrid on the score 3:0 in favor of one of the teams, and in the match of the same Barcelona with some Leganes - it may very well be), which means that the bookmaker can lay a higher margin here. In addition, the games of outsiders against favorites or even “middlings” themselves attract customers.

But also in matches. strong opponents"beeches" do not miss their benefits. So, in the semi-final of the English League Cup of the 2017/18 season, in which London Arsenal and Chelsea met, the margin of one of the offices on the outcome of the match (that is, the victory of one of the clubs or a draw) was only 2.5%, while on the exact account - immediately 5.3%. And this is only taking into account those possible results in which the same number of goals N did not exceed 3. As for exotic scores like 6:0 and higher, here the bookmaker's margin can reach up to 60%.

And most importantly: "beeches" always tend to reduce high odds (that is, such as, for example, on the exact score) to a much greater extent than low ones. Most players do not attach any importance to this, and make a mistake.

Accurate Counting Modeling

To predict a specific result football game we can use the Poisson distribution as a first approximation, that is, the average number of goals scored and conceded by each of the two teams in the predicted match, compared with the average of the entire league. Such a model is actually far from ideal, since it assumes that the goals of the hosts and guests are independent events. In practice, this is far from the real state of affairs.

Within the framework of this technique, we will consider one of the matches of the English Premier League of the 2016/17 season, in which Tottenham Hotspur hosted Everton at their stadium. Based on the statistics of the results of the games played by both clubs in the previous season, we can calculate that on average Tottenham should score 1,623 goals against the opponent. Similarly, for Everton, the figure was 0.824.

Given these assumed averages and applying a Poisson distribution, the percentage probability of each match outcome can be calculated, as reflected in Table 1.

It is possible to convert these percentage probabilities into more familiar decimal odds using a simple inversion (for example, a 25% chance of an outcome corresponds to a factor of 4.0), as shown in Table 2.

Comparison of estimated and actual odds

IN Table 3 reflects the real average odds of several bookmakers on the exact score of the same Tottenham-Everton match. The margin of "beeches" in this case reaches 40%.

Comparison with the real odds we calculated shows that for less probable outcomes, the bookmaker's odds strongly deviate from ours. Thus, the conclusion is obvious: the less probable the outcome, the greater the margin weight for it.

Finally, in Table 4 shows the best market odds offered by one of the bookmakers. But even for them, the margin is a very high figure of 14%.

The study of the value of the weight of the bookmaker's margin on the exact account

To estimate the weight of the bookmaker's margin for each individual result of a football game, you just need to divide the odds offered by the "beeches" by their real values modeled by us.

As you can see, the average betting odds for a 0-0 result is 11.2, while the simulated one is 11.6. When dividing the first number by the second, we get a ratio of 96.6%, which is equivalent to the bet's expected return on the bet. Applying this technique for all the possible results summarized in the table 49, it is possible to compile a kind of heating map ( Table 5).

The brighter the red color in a certain cell, the lower the expected profitability of a bet on such a result, since the bookmaker applies a larger margin weight to it. If the expected return is above 100%, the cell turns green (as we can see, there are only two such outcomes - 1:0 in favor of Tottenham and 1:0 in favor of Everton).

Bookmakers will not offer unprofitable odds, and therefore almost all outcomes have rather low expectations. Thus, a reckless player who dares to regularly bet on the score 4:4 in the matches of these opponents should be ready to say goodbye to almost 90% of his bets.

The heating map becomes a bit more “green” if we compare the highest odds offered by bookmakers with those calculated by us ( Table 6).

However, even in this case, the overall picture is that high-scoring outcomes have odds that are completely unattractive from this point of view.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the indicators we mentioned for the estimated number of goals of Tottenham and Everton (1.623 and 0.824, respectively) are very approximate. For example, using slightly different values in the calculations - 1.93 and 0.88 (and they more accurately reflect the offers on the handicap market for this match), we would see that none of the correct score odds would have an expected value of more than 100% even for the best betting offers.

Impact of Errors on Unlikely Outcomes

Taking into account the handicap market and other statistics, it can be assumed that in fact the expected number of Tottenham goals in the match against Everton is more than our original calculation of 1.623. So, in 10 previous home matches, the Spurs sent 27 goals to the goal of their rivals, which allowed them to win in nine cases. At the same time, Everton players scored 10 goals in 10 previous away games and celebrated success twice. Using the numbers 2.7 and 1.0 to predict the number of goals, we could bet 3-1 to the hosts for a hefty 14/1 of the bet if the game ended that way.

With such values, the expected return for a 3:1 account would be 113.5%, that is, almost one and a half times higher than the previous figure. Therefore, the margin used for such, not too obvious results, reaches such high rates. The lower the chances of a particular outcome, the greater the impact on the success of betting will have any mistake made in the simulation.

In fact, bookmakers use the same models when determining correct score odds, and high margins are their protection against possible errors. For example, the return on a 6:1 exotic bet is 31.7% in the original model, but increases by a factor of 7 to 232.8% when more realistic inputs are used. And for a score of 6:6, this increase will increase by 19 (!) times.

Law of small numbers

The law of small numbers is unjustified conclusions based on insufficient information. Players who win a string of wins in the short term begin to think they have good predictive skills, which is especially dangerous when placing bets on the correct score in football. Let's say that someone bets an impressive amount on the outcome of the match Tottenham-Everton with a score of 3:2 in favor of the hosts (odds 27/1) and wins. An inexperienced bettor can easily believe that he figured out the bookmaker's mistake and used it to his advantage.

This, of course, is possible, but most often such success is not due to the merits of the player himself, but simply to luck. And given the good probability of making a profit when placing the next 27 bets with similar high odds (see. Chart 1), the number of betters who are ready to imagine themselves as great forecasters on the exact score will never decrease.

The rest of the amateur players who were not lucky enough to hit such a jackpot will be more likely to believe that others have such developed skills. In addition, a better who has won a series of victories over a bookmaker is much more willing to talk about them than another about his series of failures.

But on long distance we will see a much more realistic picture. After a series of 28 bets, the chances of making a profit will decrease dramatically, since one win is worth 27 bets (see below). Chart 2). Accordingly, in this scenario, one should not be surprised at the theoretical decrease in profits to zero.

Summing up

So, don't rely too much on the success stories of bettors betting on high odds markets, including correct score football. Most likely, even if they are true, we are talking only about a short time period, and in the future such an "expert" can lose to the nines, continuing to make bets of this type.

It should always be remembered that the higher the odds on one or another exact account, the greater the bookmaker's margin is included in it, and, accordingly, the less attractive such a bet is for players. If you decide to stay in this market, choose more plausible results, albeit with lower odds.

It passes rather quickly, and they begin to look for more interesting outcomes in the line than bets on victory and total. One such option is the correct score betting, which bookmakers give on many team and single sports. Correct score bets attract players primarily with their high odds.

Example

Let's take the Tottenham-Arsenal match as an example. The odds for the main outcomes in look like this: 2.37-3.30-3.00. And now pay attention to what quotes the bookmaker gives for the exact score. If you bet $100 on Arsenal's likely away win with a score of 2:1, then if successful, your winnings will be $1100.

In what sports can you bet on the correct score?

football, hockey (score of goals and pucks)
volleyball (score by game)
tennis (two types of bets are possible: on the score by sets and on the score of games in a separate set)
other sports (in major tournaments, bookmakers provide similar markets for futsal, bandy, beach soccer and other sports.)

pros

High odds. Play on the main outcomes and odds of 3.50 will be “fat” for you, and when betting on the exact score, even odds of 10.00 will become commonplace.
Possibility of opposite bets. Let's take a football match between two teams with a weak offense and a strong goalkeeping line. Most likely the game will be up to a goal and only three options are possible in it 1:0, 0:0 and 0:1. You can't bet on the three main selections due to the house margin, but the odds on these three accounts will likely be in the 6.00-8.00 range. Even if you bet $100 on each of these accounts, if you win, your winnings will be at least $600.

How not to make a mistake?

Flaws

Inflated bookmaker margin. In addition, it is very difficult to calculate.
It is difficult to predict the exact score. Too many minor nuances affect this.
There are few strategies for playing in this market. Those that are publicly available are 99% unprofitable.

Summary

Professional bettors avoid betting on the correct score due to the fact that it is difficult to calculate the probability of a particular outcome. It is much easier for them to bet on total or and in many ways they are right. Bets on the correct score only seem to be profitable due to high odds, but in most cases they do not justify themselves. It is very difficult to play in this market and only a few succeed at such rates.

In the line of each bookmaker there are correct score bets. Such a sports bet requires the better not only to determine the winner, but also to name the exact score of the match. Naturally, such forecasts are very complex, and therefore the odds for the exact score are also high. As a rule, this type of bet is provided for those sports in which the total number of points scored is small: football, hockey, tennis.

A bet on the exact score in the list of bookmakers will look something like this:

Considering that Lyon is a clear underdog in this match, all bets on the correct score, assuming a victory for the hosts, are characterized by very high odds. However, the bookmaker does not offer odds below 7.5 for the most likely outcomes of the match.

Features of betting on the correct score

Correct score bets are especially popular with beginners who want to hit the big jackpot. However, in most cases, the benefit from such bets is on the side of the bookmaker. The offered odds for the correct score do not reflect the real probability that the match will end with that exact score. The bookmaker lays an increased margin on such bets, and therefore they become unbearable.

Some betters bet on several outcomes at once, which significantly increases the chances of winning, but reduces the potential profit. Based on the analysis, it is possible to predict quite accurately how the teams that have already met before will play. However, even making several bets on all possible outcomes, teams can show a completely different result. Yes, in English Premier League only 12% of matches end with the most popular account– 1:1, 1:0 or 2:1.

The size of the margin for bets on the correct account, as mentioned earlier, is quite large.

The minus of bets on the correct score is the bookmaker's high margin

At least the bookmaker will take 5% from such bets on the most popular matches. In some cases, in unpopular markets, margins can reach up to 60%. This is how the bookies deal with fixed matches. Nevertheless, experienced bookmakers manage to win at a distance even at such rates. For these purposes, they use strategies. The two most popular correct score betting strategies are:

Dogon;
27 Express.

Strategy for catch-up on the exact score

One of the most popular correct score bets in football matches is a dogon. This strategy is used in a slightly modified form, because. does not require doubling the bets every time you lose. But first things first. So, first we need to choose the best championship and team for betting. You need to choose those competitions in which the least goals are scored, because the score 1:0, 0:0, 0:1 is much easier to predict than, for example, 3:4. Let's choose for these purposes, for example, the Atlético team from Madrid.

Looking at the statistics of past seasons, we notice that most of the matches that brought victory to Atlético Madrid ended with a score of 1:0. Therefore, we can assume that in the current season this team will demonstrate approximately similar performance. Therefore, we will bet on the exact score 1:0 in favor of Atlético. For such an outcome, any bookmaker, even with the highest margin, will give a coefficient of at least 5.

To use the catch-up strategy, it is necessary to bet on the exact score only when Atlético meets with the weakest or approximately equal teams. Having put, for example, 1000 rubles on the account 1:0, we are waiting for the end of the match. If the bet has not played, then the next bet is again made for the same amount. If the next bet also loses, then 1000 rubles can be bet two more times in order to make a profit if you win.

If none of the four matches ended in a 1-0 victory for Atlético, then the size of each subsequent bet must be doubled. Suppose we managed to guess the exact score only on the sixth bet. Then the amount of profit will be 10 thousand rubles: 4000 rubles (6th bet)x5 (odds) = 20.000 - 4000 (costs for the first 4 bets) - 2000 (5th bet) - 4000 (6th bet) = 10.000 rubles. Of course, there is a risk that both the 6th and 7th bets will not work, and then we will hit the ceiling of our own budget and the maximum amounts accepted by the bookmaker. Therefore, when using this strategy, you need to carefully choose matches.

Strategy 27 accumulators for correct score

The essence of the strategy of betting on the correct score of 27 parlays is to make twenty-seven parlays out of three football events, in which all possible combinations of the score are used. For effective betting according to this strategy, it is necessary to correctly select matches. Matches are suitable for betting, which with a high degree of probability will end in the victory of the favorites with a score of 1:0, 2:1 or 2:0 - the most popular results in football. As a rule, the coefficient for each of these accounts in bookmakers ranges from 7-9.

Suppose that the bookmaker has set the following odds for the exact score for each of the three matches: 1:0 - 7, 2:1 - 8 and 2:0 - 8. Now you need to make all available combinations of outcomes involving three matches. The result will be 27 accumulators. Let's put on each of them, for example, 100 rubles. In the picture below you can see all the odds for each of the resulting accumulator bets:

It is enough to win at least one accumulator to get a significant profit. It took us 2700 rubles for all bets. Thus, if the accumulator with the smallest coefficient (343) plays, then the profit will be as follows: 34300 - 2700 = 31600 rubles. This amount exceeds the original rate (2700) rubles more than ten times. Therefore, it is enough for us to win one of ten similar series of accumulators in order to make a profit - a rather tempting prospect.

The following championships are suitable for this strategy:

Serie A;
League 1

However, this strategy has a number of disadvantages that should be considered when betting on the correct score:

It will take a lot of time to create a coupon, because you will have to bet on 27 accumulators, for each of which you need to choose a unique combination of accounts for different events.
All accumulators will lose and you will lose all money if at least one of the three teams does not win with a score of 1:0, 2:1 or 2:0.
Many bookmakers apply sanctions to bettors who manage to win using this strategy - they cut highs, or even block accounts.
According to experienced players, such a system only works once out of ten.

The described strategies do not guarantee you a win, but only show how you can increase the likelihood of making a profit with the help of bookmakers. In any case, as with any other tactics, the success of betting will largely depend on the right matches and well-conducted analysis.

On the websites of bookmakers there are bets on the exact score of football matches. The number of outcome options allows players to use several effective strategies for playing with the bookmaker.

In this article, we will look at several strategies for the exact score in football matches. We will learn how to search for fights and how to determine the size of the bet.

Correct score betting strategy in football

Football matches in many championships most often end with results such as 1-0; 2-1: 1-1. As a rule, such outcomes prevail in the championships of Greece, Portugal, Italy, Russia.

The meaning of this method is that we select 10 matches from different championships, and bet on each of them 3 singles for the most probable results. Priority should be given to grassroots teams, which very rarely break through TB 2.5. Examples can be singles for such results:

1-0;
1-1;
0-0.

There may be a specific set of ordinaries for matches. It is possible that instead of 0-0 there will be 0-1 or 2-1. Statistics will help determine the outcome. The emphasis must be made separately on home and away meetings of the teams. The choice is made in favor of the outcomes that prevail in the duels of the teams.

For example, let's take the home matches of Moscow Lokomotiv in the 17/18 season:

Railway workers throughout the season demonstrated strict game on the defensive. From this table, bets on 1 ordinary are suggested: 1-0. Here you can limit yourself to one outcome.

Lokomotiv has a 1-0 score 6 times out of 15. This means that the coefficient for this result should not be less than 2.5. Anything above, voila. Now let's look at the odds in the list of the bookmaker:

Here the coefficient is 5.3. So this is a good deal.

Other teams are selected in the same way for football correct score bets. If the team often plays on 3 outcomes, then we bet on the corresponding number of ordinars. If there are 2 results, then the bettor chooses 2 ordinars. The main thing is to choose 10 matches according to this criterion and bet the correct amounts.

How much to bet?

The size of the bet is determined depending on the coefficient. The easiest way is to use the following formula:

Here S= 5, and K is the coefficient for the exact score. The result is obtained as a percentage of the bank For quotes of 5,6,7, the percentage of the bank will be 2.5; 2,2 and 2, respectively. It is easy to calculate other betting values for all possible odds.

Aggressive overtaking is not used here. The emphasis is on grassroots teams that play cautiously in defense. 10 fights are selected in order to scroll through the funds faster and get tangible profits in a short time. For this strategy, it is not necessary to guess the exact score in football. It is important to choose the most probable outcomes, and correctly determine the size of the bet.

Bets on the correct score using the d'Alembert method

You can bet on football results using the d'Alembert financial strategy. This is not an aggressive chase. According to the rules of this technique, the player chooses the initial bet size, taking it as one. If the bet is played, then the size for the next one increases by one. If you lose, then the value for the next bet remains the same.

Size for the first bid for accurate count should not exceed 2.5% of the bank. You can bet immediately after the end of the game. It is not necessary to catch up with one team. The main thing is that the clubs fit the criteria mentioned above. Perfect option– Locomotive sample of the season 17/18. The score 1-0 in the home matches of Yuri Semin's team met with enviable regularity. Rubin plays in the same vein.