The most popular score in football. Upcoming sports predictions

Correct score betting in football seems like fun to most bettors, unsuitable for serious betting due to the difficulty of predicting the final score in a football match, but in fact, if you choose your bet wisely and apply a special strategy, you can increase your chances of success.

High odds

Bets on the correct score are always good odds, so the game is always worth the candle here, and you can count on a solid win even with a small amount of the bet. What is the correct score betting strategy based on? First of all, on statistics, which are easy to get these days, even if we are talking about a match of little-known teams.

There are a number of specialized sites that offer not only archived results of football games, but also extended statistics that can also be used by the player - the number of shots (on target / off target), saves, conversion percentage scoring chances etc.

Goal average strategy

There are several methods for predicting scores in football, and one of the most popular is based on calculating the average number of goals scored and conceded by each team. We take the average number of goals scored and conceded by the home team, add them to the same indicators of the opponent and look for the average, getting the expected score.

For example, let's take the already played Championship match "Charlton" - "Leeds". At the time of the game, Charlton had 52 goals scored and 55 conceded in 43 games, an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Leeds had a goal difference of 47-58, an average of 1.09 goal scored and 1.34 missed. That is, we got a preliminary score of 1.27 – 1.18, and in the end, “Charlton” won 2:1.

This one is vulnerable, because it is based on such a statistical concept as the average value, which is very popular with players, but often does not give a real picture of what is happening. For example, a team may not score five matches at all, and then win 6-0 and the average number of its goals will be equal to one, although, in fact, it generally scored in only one match, and kept five clean sheets.

Mode and median are the forecaster's best assistants

Much more interesting indicators from the world of statistics may be the mode and median, as well as the numerical interval. What it is? Mode is the value of the value that occurs most often in a number series. In our case, it is the number of goals that the team scores most often.

Calculating this indicator will help to immediately discard random defeats and special cases that will not affect the big picture, and we will find out that Charlton scores 2 goals most often and concedes 1 goal more often. Leeds, on the other hand, score 1 goal most of the time and concede 1 or 2 goals most of the time. This knowledge would make us revolve around the scores 2:1, 1:1, 1:0 and the probability of correct prediction would increase significantly.

The median is the variant located in the center of a ranked (ordered) series of results and is usually used together with a numerical interval, helping to better understand the essence of statistical indicators. A player using a football score prediction strategy must use not only the average, but also the modes and medians described above, as they are often better suited for these purposes, helping to discard random indicators that greatly influence the average.

Think like a bookie

In addition, you can base your strategy on the calculation of the expected number of goals in terms of such indicators as shots on goal, their accuracy and the percentage of goals scored. At least for matches in the top football leagues, the Champions League and the Europa League, such statistics are freely available and can be of great help in predicting the final score.

All the strategies described may seem very complicated and require specific mathematical knowledge and additional knowledge, but it is precisely with such indicators that bookmakers operate in their work and in order to be on an equal footing with them, and sometimes to be one step ahead, you need to understand all the subtleties of predicting sports results .

Win-win betting strategy - "forks". Win Guaranteed

Among the many sports betting strategies, there is only one really win-win strategy, which in the ideal case will bring the player a small but guaranteed win - the betting strategy "...

Football predictions. All the pros and cons

There is no doubt that football is the most popular sport in our time. Football drives millions of people around the world crazy. What other tournament besides the World Championship...

Many novice players believe that it is very difficult to predict the exact score in a match and only professional bettors can do it. It is widely believed that this betting direction is associated with significant risk.

Football correct score rules

Betting on the exact score in football at a bookmaker is one of the riskiest types of betting. Before making a choice in favor of such an option, you must determine what you expect from a particular meeting and follow the rules:

Both teams should be well known to you: the style of the game, the capabilities of the players, and so on.
Determine the direction of the confrontation in terms of performance: the expected number of goals in the game and the most important thing that can affect the increase or decrease in goals.
Determine league performance. This is very important point, slightly different from point 2, because some teams in the league are knocked out of the total.
Identify the favorite, his chances of winning and the most likely outcomes (W1, draw or W2).
Determine the problems of the teams, and how the opponent can take advantage of this (injuries, tactics, motivation, discord in the team, etc.).
Understand how each team plays and how the style of play can stop the opponent and neutralize his strengths (take into account point 5).
Determine how much each opponent can score or not score.
Find out which are the most popular accounts for teams according to the selected outcome.
Choose several options for the outcome of the match and determine the most likely one.
Remember, there are many outcomes in football, so do not play big scores.
Don't bet too much. In practice, 3-4 options are enough, but some practice 5-7. If the situation does not turn out according to the plan, you will lose not one bet, but several.

Please note: you can place 1 bet on a specific account (for example, 1:1, if you are waiting for a draw), or select 2-3 options and place 3 different bets (if you are waiting for one of the opponents to win 2:1, 2:0, 1:0 ). Usually, the odds allow you to take 3 options and, as a result, win if one of the options is correct.

Statistics of popular scores in football

According to statistics, the most popular outcomes are 1:1 and 1:0, which account for 10% of matches. Popular options: 2:1 - 9%, 2:0 - 7% and 0:0 - 7%.
The percentage of popular results increases or decreases depending on the performance of the championship. For example, the Brazilian championship is not productive and more than 70% of matches end with outcomes: 0:0, 1:0, 1:1, 2:1, 2:0. And the American MLS is productive and often there are scores of 3:1, 4:4, 4:3, 3:2, 3:3, 4:2. Consider the performance of the league itself!

At alexbetting.info/matches/statm/ you can see the performance football leagues and the most popular game results in each.

By selecting the league of interest, you will receive a detailed statistical summary of the league.

An example of English Premier League statistics.

In the Premier League, the most popular results are 2:1, 2:0, 1:1. Here 2:0 is much more common in home games, and 2:1 away.

Correct Score Betting Strategies

There are several strategies.

On the favorite

The odds for the favorites are sometimes so small that it is unprofitable to play their victory because of the bookmakers' confidence in the team's victory. In this case, you can try to play on the exact score of the favorite with a significantly increased odds.

In a correct score strategy, it is important to determine the performance of the league and the most popular option if the favorite wins and the probability that the favorite will not concede. If you are sure that he is capable of playing dry, consider betting on: 1:0, 2:0, 3:0, 4:0, 5:0 and 6:0. Bet a little more on the first options than on the next ones. Example:

1:0 at 12 c.u.
2:0 — 12-14
3:0 — 10
4:0 — 7-8
5:0 — 4
6:0 — 2

Agree, football matches are extremely rarely completed larger. Approximate coefficients: 7.5, 7.0, 7.5; 11, 19, 34.

It is important to know!

Place a similar option in cases where there is confidence that the favorite will not concede and plays reliably in defense.

But you can use the approach in a different direction. For example, consider Juventus of the 2018/19 season. The "Old Lady" did not score more than 3 goals, i.e. they win confidently in the class, but do not smash the opponent, but they play reliably in defense and concede little. Therefore, on almost any of their games, bet on the score from 1:0 to 3:0 or with 1 goal of the opponent.

IN this moment Juventus lead Serie A by a wide margin. The average performance of matches is 2.77 goals, which is the 8th indicator in the league, while at home the figure drops to 2.75. The reason is that the team operates reliably in defense.

Similar statistics can be found at 24score.pro.

On the example of the match against SPAL (11/24/2018):

1:0 for 6.50 - 10 ye
2:0 for 6.00 - 13
3:0 for 6.50 - 10
0:0 for 19.0 - 2
1:1 for 17.0 - 4
2:1 for 8.50 - 7
3:1 for 12.0 - 4

In this case, by betting $49, you won $78, and you get $29 net. You can select one team and constantly bet on it according to the selected scheme.

For example, in Spain, you can lead home Atlético Madrid, which wins 12-15 games at home out of 19 in a season; it concedes few goals and rarely scores more than 3 goals.

Strategy 1 2 3

The essence of the strategy is to make several bets on different outcomes at once, and distribute the amount so that when one passes, there is a plus. The more likely the outcome, the greater the bet amount.

It is very important to play low-scoring championships or low-scoring teams.

Consider the most popular outcomes: 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:1, 1:2. Example: meeting in the Premier League on 02.02.2019 between Burnley and Southampton. These are 2 teams that have scored 25 and 26 goals in 25 rounds, respectively. The meeting fits perfectly with the strategy. By placing bets, we get:

1:0 for 8.50 - $15
2:0 for 13.0 - 8
0:0 for 9.50 - 12
0:1 for 9.50 - 12
1:1 for 6.50 - 22
1:2 for 9.50 - 12

Total: the amount of $ 81 is affixed. The match ended 1:1, this is the most expected result, according to the bookmaker, so it was necessary to bet on it most of the time, and on the rest less, depending on the odds. As a result, the net profit is $62.

Distribute the bets so that if you hit any of the 6 outcomes, you will stay in the black.

You can take the games of any teams with low performance. For example, in Turkey, according to the strategy, bet on the matches of Alanyaspor, Bursaspor, Basaksehir or Kayserispor.

In their matches, TM2.5 passes in 70-80%.

Doubles

Most of the games in football ends with a score of 1:0, in 9-10% of cases, and in 50-60% the hosts win. This means that in low-scoring leagues, a quarter of games end with a similar result.

Therefore, having chosen 10 games with a home favorite, you can bet on a 1:0 win in a 2 out of 10 system and guess 2 to get a significant win.

27 Express

The method implies a betting package of 27 express bets on the 3 most likely outcomes of the game:

We find 3 games.
We choose the most likely outcomes.
We create 27 parlays based on these scores with all possible combinations.

Usually it is 1:0, 2:1 and 2:0, if you are sure that the hosts will win. Bookmakers offer odds in the range of 7.0-9.0. Calculation example: 1:0 ratio is approximately 7.0, 2:1 and 2:0 - 8.0.

Based on this, we put 27 accumulators for 3 games with different options results for 10$ each express:

In the case of passing any express, we get a profit. In our example smallest option with a coefficient of 343. Net profit will be 3160 units (winning on the accumulator bet 3430 minus the total amount of bets 270).

Minuses:

Big risk. If you made a mistake with one duel (any other outcome), all accumulators will lose.
You need to manually place 27 different accumulator bets, and this is a laborious process.
It's hard to guess. Players who tried the strategy wrote that they managed to do this in 10% of cases.
If you constantly win according to the strategy, you can get blacklisted by the bookmaker or your limits will be cut.

Fan strategy

Several outcomes are selected with the same amount for one match, but for different results in the game. It is not recommended to bet more than 6-7 options for the exact result, otherwise you will go into the red, taking into account the odds at bookmakers.

Example. We bet on 6 options:

1:0 for 8.50 - 100 rubles
2:0 for 13.0 - 100
0:0 for 9.50 - 100
0:1 for 9.50 - 100
1:1 for 6.50 - 100
1:2 for 9.50 - 100

If any option plays out, we win.

In other varieties of the methodology, the player chooses the most probable score and bets 40% on it, determines another 4-5 options and bets 10-15% on them. If the main bet wins, the player receives a solid win of 200-300%, and in other options returns from 70% of the staked amount or wins 5-50%.

The strategy is best used in confrontations where one of the opponents is slightly stronger than the other, but not so much as to be considered a clear favorite. Games involving clear favorites against underdogs and equal opponents are not suitable - a wide range of potential outcomes.

On account 0-0

The most popular outcome in football is a 1-1 draw. But the most popular result in the first half is 0-0. The strategy is designed specifically for this event.

Low scoring championships are best suited. Least scoring championships:

Nigeria - 1.83
South Africa - 1.95
Argentina - 2.05
Russia - 2.10
Greece - 2.13
Serbia - 2.16
Colombia, Brazil - 2.20
Ukraine, Venezuela - 2.30

After the name of the country, the average performance per match is indicated.

Leagues are ideal for this strategy and 1,2,3. For the method to be profitable, choose teams that do not have much motivation and are preferably at the bottom of the standings.

You can also play against such a strategy, then choose a game between a favorite and an outsider, and high-scoring teams that usually score at least 1 goal in the first half.

On account 1-0

The second most popular result is 1:0. You can use this knowledge and bet on the outcome. For the strategy, you will need to choose a specific team, often winning with just that score. You can choose one or more teams from the list of less successful championships provided above and bet on a victory with a result of 1-0.

Important!

In no case do not choose attacking and high-scoring teams that often score more than 1 goal per game.

First, wait for the team to play 3-7 matches with any other outcome and then bet on the result 1-0. For example, let's start with $10. In case of loss, the next 3 bets can be placed with the same amount depending on the odds, usually in the region of 5.0 and higher. Each subsequent bet must increase the previous one by 2 times. We bet $10, on the 5th time we bet $20, on the 6th - $40, etc.

Let's say that the team won from 6 times with the desired outcome of 1-0, we get a win of ~ $ 200, if the standard odds of 5.0 are taken as the basis. The bet amount is 10*4+20+40=100, net profit is $100.

system plus minus one

When using the system, 4 games are selected, then for each confrontation it is determined with what outcome the meeting can end. Then add and subtract one ball from each opponent to each result. For example, if we consider that there will be 3:1: 4:1, 2:1, 3:2, etc.

game-1 - singles
game-2 - single
game-3 - single player
game-4 - single player
express: first and second game
express: first and third
express: first and fourth
express: second and third
express: second and fourth
express: third and fourth
express: first, second, third
express: first, second, fourth
express: first, third, fourth
express: second, third, fourth
express: first, second, third, fourth

If you manage to guess the results of at least 2 matches, you will win. For strategy, it is important to use low-scoring championships or teams.

Live bets

There are 2 types of live bets:

Defensive - we bet that nothing will happen in the match, for example, it will be 0-0.
Aggressive - put on certain event, which we expect to see in the match.

Live betting on the correct score is best to choose defensive in the grassroots championships. For example, when one team scores, many expecting that the opponents will open up and many goals will follow, they bet on this option. In such situations in the grassroots championship, where before the start of the event the outcome was supposed to be 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1, bet 40-70% on the team that scored the goal to keep the score until the end of the match. Additionally, secure yourself by betting on 1-1 in case of a return goal.

An aggressive option can be used to win the favorite if the match was unsuccessful and he was the first to concede a goal. Here it is important not to make a mistake with the choice of the favorite, because. you have to pick someone who doesn't score a lot of goals.

In the 0-0 strategy, it was noted that it was advisable to bet on the outcome in the first half in the lower league. Here you can place a bet before the start of the match, and play it safe during the game and bet on a goal in the 1st half after 15-20 minutes. The coefficient can be such that you get a fork and you will not lose in any outcome of the first half.

If you find an error, please highlight a piece of text and click Ctrl+Enter.

The essence of this betting strategy is that the player must make not single bets, but bets according to a certain system. By making a series of bets, you significantly reduce the risk of losing, and thereby increase the amount of winnings if you guess the exact outcome of the event. Having decided to bet on the correct score, you must remember that the most attractive for this type of bet are football, tennis and volleyball. For tennis and volleyball, the number of options directly depends on the number of sets played, which must be won to win, and in football, the theoretical score can reach 10:0. As a rule, football correct score bets have a standard set of outcomes, however, you can also offer your own option (note that some bookmakers do not allow you to specify your option).

Correct score betting in football

Mathematics is the basis of any strategy, so any type of bet, the result of which, it would seem, is impossible to predict, is subject to calculations. According to statistics, 10% of matches end with a score of 1:1, the same percentage falls on a 1:0 score, about 50% of matches end with a score of 0:0, 1:0, 1:1, 2:1, 2:0. There are five possible options to choose from. For bets to be profitable, you must use one of the proposed strategies; but at the same time, remember that many bookmakers prohibit making more than one bet on the outcome of the match in express and systems.

Plus/minus one strategy

In order to put this strategy into practice, you need to select four matches and make assumptions about their outcome. After you determine the score for each of the matches, alternately add and subtract one goal for each team. For example, you have chosen four matches and think that the result will be as follows: 3:2, 3:1, 1:3, 3:1. Now it is necessary for each of the matches to make the following set of betting accounts: - match 1: 3:2 4:2 3:3 2:2 3:1 - match 2: 3:1 4:1 3:2 2:1 3: 0 - match 3: 1:3 2:3 1:4 0:3 1:2 - match 4: 3:1 4:1 3:2 2:1 3:0 of each set of accounts from the vertical column, select a type of system that will take into account all possible express bets from any number of events that are included in the system, taking into account the ordinals (bets on one outcome of one event). For our set of four matches, the system will include 15 options that can be manually calculated.

The only problem in this case is to find a bookmaker that allows you to make more than one bet on the match score in express bets. For four matches, these outcomes will be: - single: match 1 - single: match 2 - single: match 3 - single: match 4 - multiple: match 1, match 2 - multiple: match 1, match 3 - multiple: match 1, match 4 - express: match 2, match 3 - express: match 2, match 4 - express: match 3, match 4 - express: match 1, match 2, match 3 - express: match 1, match 2, match 4 - express: match 1, match 3, match 4 - multiple: match 2, match 3, match 4 - multiple: match 1, match 2, match 3, match 4 After you make such a system, you must bet an equal amount on each of the options . If you guess the outcome of at least two matches, you will make a profit. It is best to choose championships with low performance, then it will be easier to form scores based on 0:0 or 1:0 outcomes.

Strategy "Doubles"

In this strategy, the same statistics will help the players, which says that about 12% of matches end with a score of 1:0, and in half of sporting events the hosts become the winners. Based on simple mathematical calculations, it turns out that about 25% of matches end in a 1-0 victory for the hosts. It follows from this that if a player chooses to analyze 10 matches in which the hosts may win, then five of them will end with a score of 1:0. In this case, if a player bets a 2 out of 10 system on a 1:0 score in 10 matches, then if he guesses two matches, the win will be quite significant. These are the main strategies that allow you to accurately predict the outcome of the match and reduce the risk of losses to a minimum.

Hello betters. In this article, we will talk about how to bet on the exact score in football, and also consider strategies with specific examples.

Article overview

What is an accurate count

A bet on the correct score is a market in the bookmaker's match list, which offers to bet on the final result of the match. That is, if you think that the Real-Barcelona match will end with a score of 2:0, you can bet on this outcome.

If the match ends with this score, then you take your winnings, and if it differs from what you predicted, then you lose. Often, a bet on the exact score in the bookmaker's signature is denoted - TS.

How to guess the correct score in football

A bet on TS is one of the most popular outcomes in online betting. Think for yourself, because for sure, before the start of some interesting match, you have thoughts about how the score will end the game.

I am sure that each of you faced the fact that, naming the exact score before the match, which turned out to be correct, you very much regretted that you did not bet on such an outcome. This is due to the complexity of such a forecast.

Many betters are sure that TS is one of the most unpredictable markets in painting, and they use it for fun, but if you look at it, you can make quite good money on it.

To predict the exact score, we will need to do a thorough analysis of the match, which includes:

Team statistics in recent games;
Study of compositions;
Statistics on goals scored and conceded;
Games at home and away;
Injuries of football players;
Correct distribution of the bank;
The ability to control oneself, because we will play at very high odds, and a series of defeats will await us.

At first glance, it may seem to you that such an analysis is very difficult to do, but everything is much simpler. Largely due to the fact that not as many goals are scored in a football match as we think. Usually, these are 3 goals, of which we can predict the exact score, and focusing on statistics and visual observations, bring our forecast to perfection.

Where you can bet on the exact score in football for free

This market is one of the most popular, since almost every better at least once in his life hoped for luck and bet on such an outcome. For this reason, this market can be found in any bookmaker with huge values, so you will not have any difficulties with the search.

Therefore, let's not waste time and move on to a review of popular strategies.

Accumulator betting strategy (27 accumulators)

The name of this strategy may put you off right away. Indeed, you need to bet with accumulators, so also on bets with correct score, but in reality everything looks simpler, and the strategy itself brings a good profit at a distance.

Description and essence of the strategy

It is logical to guess that it will be necessary to make 27 accumulator bets with outcomes on the TS. You don’t need to bet on everything, in the hope that one of them will fly, but focus on just 3 matches.

Between these matches, we will make 27 parlays, but before choosing them, you need to take into account the following criteria for selecting matches:

It is best to take matches where there is a favorite, for which they give odds of 1.3-1.4;
This match, according to your forecast, should not break the total of 3 goals. That is, if 4 goals are scored, then the whole strategy will be in vain;
Analyze matches as carefully as possible so as not to go beyond the total, and so that the favorite wins.

Since we took matches in which the favorite, in our opinion, will win and not break through the total of 3 goals, we can single out the most probable score in these meetings.

Then, we combine all the bets and as a result, we get 27 accumulator bets. You will be pleasantly surprised that each of these parlays will have a coefficient of at least 350, and it’s not worth explaining the whole point further, it’s better to move on to a specific example.

Rate example

For the sake of an example, I selected 3 matches of the 2nd round of the RPL, because our championship is considered one of the least scored and there are plenty to choose from:

Rostov - Spartak - (Rostov will win 1:0, 2:0, 2:1);
Sochi - Zenit - (Zenith will win 0:1, 0:2, 1:2);
CSKA - Orenburg - (CSKA will win 1:0, 2:0, 2:1).

Next, we make 27 express trains, where we alternate all the selected vehicles. I agree that compiling express bets will be quite problematic and long, but if you did everything right, then your efforts will be richly rewarded.

You can make up according to this example, where K is the size of the coefficients on the vehicle, and at the end the final quotes:

Well, how much to bet on each accumulator is up to you. I will give only such figures. Let's say for each coupon, we made a bet for 100 rubles. In total, 2,700 rubles were spent on 27 express trains.

If we have one coupon with a minimum coefficient of 350, then we will get from 100-35,000 rubles! Agree, this will cover all our costs with a vengeance, and we will break the real jackpot.

Betting strategy for singles

This strategy is for those who can and like to do a thorough analysis of the match, because you will need to minimize the number of lost bets.

Description and essence of the strategy

As you already understood, you will need to play flat, that is, make a bet with a fixed amount of money for each match. I think you understand that placing one bet on TS on one particular match is stupid, as it is very difficult.

Therefore, you will need to place 5 or 6 TS bets at once with a fixed rate for one particular match. But in order not to go beyond this number of bets, you need to choose the right match.

An example of a bet on the exact score by ordinals

No need to chase large vehicles. As a rule, in football we most often meet such results as: 1:0, 1:1, 2:1, 2:0. Therefore, I recommend choosing matches from championships with low performance.

To some extent, this applies to the championship of Russia. So I'll show you on the example of the match CSKA-Orenburg. We are analyzing the meeting, and due to the weak game of the army team in the 1st round of the RPL, and the same result of Orenburg, we can assume that there will be no goals in this match, or no more than 3.

In addition, if a victory happens, then most likely the army team will celebrate it. . Therefore, we turn to bets on express bets:

100 rubles for TS 0:0 - coefficient 7;
100 rubles for TS 1:0 - coefficient 8;
100 rubles for TS 2:0 - coefficient 12;
100 rubles for TS 1:1 - coefficient 10;
100 rubles for TS 2:1 - coefficient 15.

As a result, with a score of 0:0, we will get a minimum profit of 200 rubles (100 x 7 \u003d 700 - 500 (the sum of all bets) \u003d 200). Well, if you guessed the result with higher odds, then the profit will be much more significant.

Catching up strategy

One of my favorite options is catch-up. With this strategy, your bank will increase by a large amount, and the winnings will be measured in huge amounts, but there are certain risks.

Description and essence of the strategy

Catching up is a financial strategy in which you will need to double your bet after each loss. What is the point? The fact is that with a series of defeats, at some point you will bet an increased amount and win back all the money lost, plus you will get a decent profit.

This strategy is used on absolutely all outcomes, but it is on the TS, thanks to high odds, that we can count on crazy payouts.

An example of a bet on the correct score by chasing

It is best to bet on the minimum wins of the favorites, whether it be 1:0 or 0:1. This is one of the most popular accounts in football matches, so sooner or later you will be lucky and guess the score.

Catching up, in turn, is carried out by doubling each subsequent bet, but when playing at very high quotes, you can do this 1.5 times or even less. For example:

100 rubles on a vehicle with a coefficient of 4 - a loss;
150 rubles for a vehicle with a coefficient of 4 - a loss;
200 rubles for a vehicle with a coefficient of 4 - a loss;
300 rubles on a TS with a coefficient of 4 - a win of 1,200 rubles.

The net profit when using such a catch-up was 450 rubles, which is very good. You, in turn, can increase the amount, as you please.

Correct Score Strategy - Totalizator

Betting on the correct score when you win can bring you a lot of money, but when using the sweepstakes, you can count on hitting the real jackpot.

Description and essence of the strategy

Tote is a kind of coupon of 8 matches in which you need to guess the exact score. Of course, it is very difficult to do this, but there were cases when players achieved such a result.

In addition, you can bet not just one TS in each match, but choose 2 or 3 outcomes, while the amount of the bet on the totalizator will double and triple.

At the same time, to win, it is enough to guess 2 events, and you will make a profit. True, it will be almost invisible.

So the bottom line is that the more TS you guess, the more you win. Here is the calculation of one of the draws, where you can see the odds for the predicted outcomes.

As you can see, one player managed to guess 6 events and get a win with a coefficient of 7288. Incredible result.

What strategy should be adopted in the game on the TS sweepstakes? It all depends on your analytical skills, and how many additional outcomes you can choose.

Rate example

As a rule, the bookmaker offers a draw with matches from completely different championships. Usually I look at those events that take place within the framework of low-scoring championships, and I add additional vehicles to them.

The rest of the matches, in which it is incredibly difficult to guess the TS, can be bet on the outcome, supported by purely intuitive thinking. Who knows, maybe in addition to the analyzed matches, you will be able to guess what is called the poke method.

Esports Correct Score Betting

Esports is one of the fastest growing sports in online betting. Its development is taking place so rapidly that in eSports you will find all the outcomes that are offered even for top football matches.

Of course, this also applies to accurate count, which is calculated by the statistics and form of cybersportsmen. If you focus on Dota 2 or CS:GO, then it will be difficult to guess the TS, because the number of frags or kills reaches a variety of values. At the same time, you can bet on the TS of the general match, since often teams or e-sportsmen play several rounds.

For example, some CS:GO tournaments are held in 3 rounds. It is not difficult to guess that the score can be: 2:0, 2:1, 1:2. Such a narrow choice allows us to calculate the most probable TS with the help of statistics and earn good money.

This also applies to the football simulator - FIFA. Even though it's just a video game that doesn't have a close connection to traditional football, sometimes the matches play out the same way.

How to find bets on the exact score in a line

Finally, I propose to show you how and where to find outcomes for TS bets. We go to the page of the bookmaker, in our case Liga Stavok, since this office most often offers a similar market, and select the championship we are interested in.

I selected the RPL, after which a list of all available matches opened. Next, click on the match where we want to bet on the vehicle. I chose the meeting between Rostov and Spartak.

We scroll down the list a little lower and find a column with all the vehicles available for this game with coefficients.

All that remains after choosing the predicted vehicle is to set the bet amount and click on the button to place a bet.

In most cases, the exact score is used as a bet for fun and good luck, but using the strategies described in this article, you can not only become a real soothsayer, but also get good money for it.

Therefore, study this market as best as possible, and start applying all algorithms from the minimum amounts. As soon as you realize that you are doing well, then gradually move on to large bets. Also learn to control yourself, because often, intuition fails, and we bet too much on the TC, which, in our opinion, will definitely happen in the match.

I hope the article was helpful to you. I wish you good luck and as many big wins as possible.

Indeed, bookmakers offer odds of at least 10 for 2:0 or 2:1 scores that are quite popular in football in most matches. It would seem that this is a great opportunity to bet a round sum and quickly increase it tenfold! However, in reality, betting in this very specific market will lead to defeat in most cases if you are amateurish about it.

Correct Score Market

Unlike the most common types of betting on football, which include betting on a win, draw or defeat of one of the teams, the correct score market offers many options. Some bookmakers offer crazy odds on accounts like 10:9 (imagine if a football match ended with such a result, not even hockey, but rather handball), others limit themselves to more real outcomes (most often up to 3:3), offering on all the rest, place a bet “another account”.

If we designate the maximum number of goals of one of the teams in the match as N, then the maximum number of all theoretically possible scores can be calculated using the formula (N + 1)². Thus, games ending with a final score ranging from 0 to 6 goals for each of the opponents can have 49 possible outcomes.

That is why bookmakers offer such high odds in this market, because any of the possible outcomes can happen with much less probability than a simple draw or a victory of one of the teams. This can be supported by the fact that throughout history English Premier League the most seemingly popular scores 1:0, 1:1 and 2:1 occurred in less than 12% of cases (of course, if we talk about each of them separately).

Bookmakers are very fond of such teams, which are considered to be outsiders. After all, the possible number of “reliable” score options for amateur players in matches with their participation is, by definition, greater than in ordinary matches (you are unlikely to risk betting, say, Barcelona and Real Madrid on the score 3:0 in favor of one of the teams, and in the match of the same Barcelona with some Leganes - it may very well be), which means that the bookmaker can lay a higher margin here. In addition, the games of outsiders against favorites or even “middlings” themselves attract customers.

But also in matches. strong opponents"beeches" do not miss their benefits. So, in the semi-final of the English League Cup of the 2017/18 season, in which London Arsenal and Chelsea met, the margin of one of the offices on the outcome of the match (that is, the victory of one of the clubs or a draw) was only 2.5%, while on the exact account - immediately 5.3%. And this is only taking into account those possible results in which the same number of goals N did not exceed 3. As for exotic scores like 6:0 and higher, here the bookmaker's margin can reach up to 60%.

And most importantly: "beeches" always tend to reduce high odds (that is, such as, for example, on the exact score) to a much greater extent than low ones. Most players do not attach any importance to this, and make a mistake.

Accurate Counting Modeling

To predict a specific outcome football game we can use the Poisson distribution as a first approximation, that is, the average number of goals scored and conceded by each of the two teams in the predicted match, compared with the average of the entire league. Such a model is actually far from ideal, since it assumes that the goals of the hosts and guests are independent events. In practice, this is far from the real state of affairs.

Within the framework of this technique, we will consider one of the matches of the English Premier League of the 2016/17 season, in which Tottenham Hotspur hosted Everton at their stadium. Based on the statistics of the results of the games played by both clubs in the previous season, we can calculate that on average Tottenham should score 1,623 goals against the opponent. Similarly, for Everton, the figure was 0.824.

Given these assumed averages and applying a Poisson distribution, the percentage probability of each match outcome can be calculated, as reflected in Table 1.

It is possible to convert these percentage probabilities to more familiar decimal odds using a simple inversion (for example, a 25% chance of an outcome corresponds to a factor of 4.0), as shown in Table 2.

Comparison of estimated and actual odds

IN Table 3 reflects the real average odds of several bookmakers on the exact score of the same Tottenham-Everton match. The margin of "beeches" in this case reaches 40%.

Comparison with the real odds we calculated shows that for less probable outcomes, the bookmaker's odds strongly deviate from ours. Thus, the conclusion is obvious: the less probable the outcome, the greater the margin weight for it.

Finally, in Table 4 shows the best market odds offered by one of the bookmakers. But even for them, the margin is a very high figure of 14%.

The study of the value of the weight of the bookmaker's margin on the exact account

To estimate the weight of the bookmaker's margin for each individual result of a football game, you just need to divide the odds offered by the "beeches" by their real values modeled by us.

As you can see, the average odds for a 0-0 result is 11.2, while the simulated one is 11.6. When dividing the first number by the second, we get a ratio of 96.6%, which is equivalent to the bet's expected return on the bet. Applying this technique for all the possible results summarized in the table 49, it is possible to compile a kind of heating map ( Table 5).

The brighter the red color in a certain cell, the lower the expected profitability of a bet on such a result, since the bookmaker applies a larger margin weight to it. If the expected return is above 100%, the cell turns green (as we can see, there are only two such outcomes - 1:0 in favor of Tottenham and 1:0 in favor of Everton).

Bookmakers will not offer unprofitable odds, and therefore almost all outcomes have rather low expectations. Thus, a reckless player who dares to regularly bet on the score 4:4 in the matches of these opponents should be ready to say goodbye to almost 90% of his bets.

The heating map becomes a bit more “green” if we compare the highest odds offered by bookmakers with those calculated by us ( Table 6).

However, even in this case, the overall picture is that high-scoring outcomes have odds that are completely unattractive from this point of view.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that the indicators we mentioned for the estimated number of goals of Tottenham and Everton (1.623 and 0.824, respectively) are very approximate. For example, using slightly different values in the calculations - 1.93 and 0.88 (and they more accurately reflect the offers on the handicap market for this match), we would see that none of the correct score odds would have an expected value of more than 100% even for the best betting offers.

Impact of Errors on Unlikely Outcomes

Taking into account the handicap market and other statistics, it can be assumed that Tottenham's expected number of goals in the match against Everton is actually higher than our original calculation of 1.623. So, in 10 previous home matches, the Spurs sent 27 goals into the goal of their rivals, which allowed them to win in nine cases. At the same time, Everton players scored 10 goals in 10 previous away games and celebrated success twice. Using the numbers 2.7 and 1.0 to predict the number of goals, we could bet 3-1 to the hosts for a hefty 14/1 of the bet if the game ended that way.

With such values, the expected return for a 3:1 account would be 113.5%, that is, almost one and a half times higher than the previous figure. Therefore, the margin used for such, not too obvious results, reaches such high rates. The lower the chances of a particular outcome, the greater the impact on the success of betting will have any mistake made in the simulation.

In fact, bookmakers use the same models when determining correct score odds, and high margins are their protection against possible errors. For example, the return on a 6:1 exotic bet is 31.7% in the original model, but increases by a factor of 7 to 232.8% when more realistic inputs are used. And for a score of 6:6, this increase will increase by 19 (!) times.

Law of small numbers

The law of small numbers is unjustified conclusions based on insufficient information. Players who win a string of wins in the short term begin to think they have good predictive skills, which is especially dangerous when placing bets on the correct score in football. Let's say that someone bets an impressive amount on the outcome of the match Tottenham-Everton with a score of 3:2 in favor of the hosts (odds 27/1) and wins. An inexperienced bettor can easily believe that he figured out the bookmaker's mistake and used it to his advantage.

This, of course, is possible, but most often such success is not due to the merits of the player himself, but simply to luck. And given the good probability of making a profit when placing the next 27 bets with similar high odds (see. Chart 1), the number of betters who are ready to imagine themselves as great forecasters on the exact score will never decrease.

The rest of the amateur players who were not lucky enough to hit such a jackpot will be more likely to believe that others have such developed skills. In addition, a better who has won a series of victories over a bookmaker is much more willing to talk about them than another about his series of failures.

But on long distance we will see a much more realistic picture. After a series of 28 bets, the chances of making a profit will decrease dramatically, since one win is worth 27 bets (see below). Chart 2). Accordingly, in this scenario, one should not be surprised at the theoretical decrease in profits to zero.

Summing up

So, don't rely too much on the success stories of bettors betting on high odds markets, including correct score football. Most likely, even if they are true, we are talking only about a short time period, and in the future such an "expert" can lose to the nines, continuing to make bets of this type.

It should always be remembered that the higher the odds on one or another exact account, the greater the bookmaker's margin is included in it, and, accordingly, the less attractive such a bet is for players. If you decide to stay in this market, choose more plausible results, albeit with lower odds.